Методи експертних оцінок в управлінні фізичною культурою і спортом

Abstract

У фізичному вихованні і спорті прогнозування необхідне для передбачення конкретних перспектив розвитку того або іншого процесу або явища, які відображають як завдання розвитку галузі у цілому, так і завдання фізич- ного вдосконалення конкретної людини чи групи осіб. Виявлені ключові поняття прогнозування, які визначають рівень знання майбутнього. In physical education and sports, forecasting is necessary to predict specific development prospects of this or that process or phenomenon, which reflect both the tasks of the industry development as a whole and the tasks of physical improvement of a specific person or group of persons. The key concepts of forecasting, which determine the level of knowledge of the future, are revealed. The goals and types of forecasts, objects and stages of forecasting are defined. There are five concepts that determine the level of knowledge of the future: prevision, prediction, forecast, plan and program. In scientific research, scientists pay attention to forecasting the dynamics of the development of both the specific sports and the entire system of athletes training in a certain country. First of all, it concerned the system of athletes training for the Olympic Games, especially in the sports where the most medals were won (athletics, swimming, gymnastics, etc.). For this purpose, complex target programs for the development of Olympic sports have been start developed, that based on forecasting. The extrapola􀆟 on method is a method of scien􀆟 fi c research that consists in extending the conclusions obtained from the observa􀆟 on of one part of the phenomenon to another part of it. In a narrow sense, this is the defi ni􀆟 on of a func􀆟 on of its other values outside this series based on a series of data. The expert evalua􀆟 ons method is a method of forecas􀆟 ng and evalua􀆟 ng the future results of ac􀆟 ons based on the forecasts of experts. When using the expert evalua- 􀆟 ons method, a group of experts is surveyed in order to clarify and determine certain variable parameters, that are necessary to evaluate the object under study. There are two groups of Expert methods – individual and collec􀆟 ve. Individual opinions are the expert opinions, that formulated by each of them independently without inferences from other experts. Such methods include interviewing and ques􀆟 onnaires. Among the collec􀆟 ve methods of expert evalua􀆟 on, there are the commission method (this includes holding work mee􀆟 ngs, conferences, seminars, «round table» discussions), the Delphi method, the detached evalua􀆟 on method, «Brainstorming», etc. The main characteris􀆟 cs of expert evalua􀆟 ons in the management of physical culture and sports are determined.